Presentation given at the AIG Victorian Minerals Round-up 2024
Ballarat, June 2024
This presentation compares the discovery performance of Victoria against the other six Australian States.
Key observations are:
- Australia has a long and bountiful history for exploration – with over 1500 significant mineral discoveries made since 1840. Half of these were found since 1987
- Australia currently spends ~A$4.0 billion pa on exploration Over the last decade Victoria’s share was 4%.
- The main exploration focus in Victoria is gold, followed by mineral sands and base metals
- Victoria accounts for just 3% of Australia’s available land area. On a $/km2 basis Victoria is one of the most intensively explored States.
- On average ~14 significant discoveries are made each year in Australia. Over the last decade Victoria accounted for 7 discoveries – 7% of the country’s total. Victoria performed well
- Over the last decade, five Tier1 and seven Tier2 discoveries were made in Australia. In Victoria, the Swan deposit [Tier1] was found in 2016 and Sunday Creek [Tier2] in 2022.
- Over the last decade Australia spent US$21.9 billion [in Dec 2023 US$] on exploration.
- Over the same period US$29.9 billion [in Dec 2023 US$] of value was created.
- Dividing one by the other gives a Value/Cost (or “Bang-per-Buck”) of 1.37 for Australia. In short, over the last decade, exploration was a value-creating endeavour in Australia.
- Victoria was (by far) the best performing State with a Value/Cost ratio of 4.27. This was largely driven by the value associated with the Tier1 gold discovery at Swan. Leaving this out would bring Victoria back to the National average.
- With regard to its Policy Potential Index (a measure of business risk for mining & exploration companies), the latest Survey from the Fraser Institute has Victoria ranked 48 out of 86 countries/jurisdictions. Victoria has the least attractive profile of all the Australian States – and getting worse over time. The main challenges are associated with environmental regulations, access to land and administration of regulations. The State has a very good geological database and excellent personal security.
- The 1-3 year outlook for exploration in Australia suggests we are heading into a (major) down-cycle. This is driven by difficulties by Junior Companies to raise fresh capital.
Similar challenges and opportunities apply elsewhere in the World