Victoria versus Australia: Opportunities, Endowment & Performance


Presentation given at the AIG Victorian Minerals Round-up 2024
Ballarat,  June 2024

This presentation compares the discovery performance of Victoria against the other six Australian States. 

Key observations are:

  • Australia has a long and bountiful history for exploration – with over 1500 significant mineral discoveries made since 1840.  Half of these were found since 1987
  • Australia currently spends ~A$4.0 billion pa on exploration Over the last decade Victoria’s share was 4%. 
  • The main exploration focus in Victoria is gold, followed by mineral sands and base metals
  • Victoria accounts for just 3% of Australia’s available land area.  On a $/km2 basis Victoria is one of the most intensively explored States.
  • On average ~14 significant discoveries are made each year in Australia.  Over the last decade Victoria accounted for 7 discoveries – 7% of the country’s total.  Victoria performed well
  • Over the last decade, five Tier1 and seven Tier2 discoveries were made in Australia.  In Victoria, the Swan deposit [Tier1] was found in 2016 and Sunday Creek [Tier2] in 2022.
  • Over the last decade Australia spent US$21.9 billion [in Dec 2023 US$] on exploration.
  • Over the same period US$29.9 billion [in Dec 2023 US$] of value was created. 
  • Dividing one by the other gives a Value/Cost (or “Bang-per-Buck”) of 1.37 for Australia.  In short, over the last decade, exploration was a value-creating endeavour in Australia.
  • Victoria was (by far) the best performing State with a Value/Cost ratio of 4.27.  This was largely driven by the value associated with the Tier1 gold discovery at Swan.  Leaving this out would bring Victoria back to the National average.
  • With regard to its Policy Potential Index (a measure of business risk for mining & exploration companies), the latest Survey from the Fraser Institute has Victoria ranked 48 out of 86 countries/jurisdictions.  Victoria has the least attractive profile of all the Australian States – and getting worse over time. The main challenges are associated with environmental regulations, access to land and administration of regulations.  The State has a very good geological database and excellent personal security.
  • The 1-3 year outlook for exploration in Australia suggests we are heading into a (major) down-cycle.  This is driven by difficulties by Junior Companies to raise fresh capital.

Similar challenges and opportunities apply elsewhere in the World