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Schodde RC, "Copper Market Outlook". Presentation given at the Australian Copper Conference, Brisbane, March 2011.


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The presentation discusses the short to medium term outlook for Copper. Key observations were:

  • The World's economy is recovering from the Global Financial Crisis and has 12 months to go
  • The Tohoku earthquake and resulting tsunami will not derail world demand for copper however, the loss of power in Japan may affect local industries
  • Copper prices are set to stay strong in 2011 and 2012
  • A Major supply gap between supply and demand will open up post-2020. This will be filled with (unspecified) new copper projects
  • The challenge is that the existing Major Producers need to replenish their pipeline of copper projects. The opportunities for acquiring giant deposits are fairly limited as most of the undeveloped deposits are already tied up with other Majors.
  • Developers will need to embrace and manage risk. 80% of the >5 Mt Cu undeveloped projects are in High Risk and Very High Risk Countries.
  • M&A activity is picking up especially for undeveloped projects

In summary, any Junior Company with a decent, or even a half-decent, copper project will be in a favoured position for the next few years.

Note: I did the presentation as a representative of the consulting firm CRU Strategies. I regularly assist them on specific assignments in downstream aspects of the mining industry.

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